RECESSIONS AND RECOVERIES ~ A BRIEF HISTORY
December 20, 2012 on 11:09 am | In Charts + Statistics, Fascinating Information, Market Snapshot, Trends, Uncategorized | 3 CommentsWe may be in recovery mode, but U.S. employment still has a long way to go before returning to its prerecession level.
This chart, courtesy of the New York Times, shows economy-wide job changes in this last recession and recovery compared with other recent recessions. Since the Great Recession began in December 2007, the economy has seen a net decline of about 3% in its nonfarm payroll jobs.
As an aside to these statics, take note that the working-age population has continued to grow. If the economy were healthy we would have more jobs today than we had before the recession.
Getting the economy back to the pre-recession level of 5% unemployment in two years would require job growth of closer to 280,000 per month.
There are now 12.3 million workers looking for work who cannot find it. The tally of those who are “underemployed” — that is, adding in those workers who are part time but want to be employed full time, and workers who want to work but are not looking — is an even larger 23 million.
The NY Times notes, “As bad as all these figures are, it’s worth remembering that job markets in the decade following a financial crisis are always terrible.”
Believe it or not, layoffs were far worse and lasted much longer in the aftermath of the financial crises that Finland and Sweden in 1991 and Spain in 1977, not to mention the recovery from our own Great Depression.
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http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/comparing-recessions-and-recoveries/
http://www.socalofficerealestateblog.com/?p=2292
http://lawandmore.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5d2553ef017616525e48970c-500wi
http://www.socalindustrialrealestateblog.com/?p=1535
http://www.profi-forex.us/system/news/J9-1.jpg
http://mediashower.com/img/61/flying%20IT%20worker.jpg
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It’s becoming clear to me that what we’ve been thinking of as a stage in the recovery actually is the recovery.
Job growth at a 1.5% annual rate is well below our hopes from previous cycles but its getting hard to imagine faster growth unless the government starts spending more money (ha-ha) or consumers like their finances enough to start clamoring for new homes.
Comment by Marco Santarelli — December 22, 2012 #
Fannie Mae economists expect existing-home sales to grow by 9.6 percent next year, that new-home sales will surge by 19.5 percent, and that single-family housing starts will grow by 25.7 percent as the housing recovery picks up steam.
Comment by Inman News® — December 22, 2012 #
Wall Street is betting big on housing. And that could bode well for the economy in 2013.
Comment by Neil Irwin — December 22, 2012 #