Southern California Industrial Real Estate Blog

THE LOS ANGELES CLEAN TECH CORRIDOR WILL MAKE L.A. THE LEADER IN GREEN TECHNOLOGY

By Jodi Summers

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and the Community Redevelopment Agency (CRA/LA) hope to transform L.A. into ‘the global capital of clean technology.” The goal is to transform the manufacturing corridor east of downtown into the center of green innovation. The mayor and his team are marketing this industrial parcel, dubbed the CleanTech Manufacturing Center, as a green business incubator, the way Silicon Valley hatched technology.

“We will make clean tech as synonymous with LA as motion pictures,” Mayor Villaraigosa boldly declared. “We will make LA the capital of green technology … and transform the city into a laboratory for green development.”

The CleanTech Corridor city planners envision spans 2,236 acres — about 10% railroad-owned — east of Alameda Street, and is accessible by the Metro Gold Line. It begins at a swath of land straddling the L.A. River, near Los Angeles State Historic Park (the former Cornfield), that Councilman Ed Reyes hopes to transform into a neighborhood where bicycles and pedestrians would rule and carbon emissions would be cut by 35%. Then it runs south through the site of a future Department of Water and Power research center into the Artists-in-Residence district, which stretches from Alameda to the river and from 1st Street to south of 7th Street. The vacant CleanTech Manufacturing site at Santa Fe Avenue and 15th Street, just south of the 10 Freeway, forms the corridor’s southern anchor.

“…The City is standing with the world-class academic institutions of Los Angeles and our dynamic business community to stake a claim as a global leader in the clean and green technologies that will drive the 21st century economy,” the mayor pronounced. “From R&D to manufacturing to design, this partnership taps into the creative assets and innovative spirit of our City to foster new industry and spur job growth.”

Of course, there are no local funds to make this conversion happen, so the city of Los Angeles will be calling for private investment and money from state and federal sources,

Last fall, CRA officials and the mayor’s business team began courting clean technology companies — talking up the purchasing power of the city’s public utilities, as well as the array of federal, state and city tax incentives available to business.

More than 100 companies, from solar and electric car manufacturers to a garment recycling business, expressed interest in the CleanTech site, which the city purchased from the state last April for $14 million.

“The Los Angeles Business Council believes that attracting green-tech companies will be a prime economic driver for the region,” said Los Angeles Business Council President Mary Leslie. “We were proud to launch the website CleanTechLA.org at our Sustainability Summit last year and look forward to continuing our partnership with the consortium to build a vibrant green economy in Los Angeles.”

For capitalist development, the Los Angeles Times reports that the most intensive push has been for an Italian rail manufacturer, AnsaldoBreda, which is angling for a $300-million rail car construction contract with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. If it secures the contract, AnsaldoBreda has promised to build a $70-million manufacturing plant. The contract is controversial because some MTA officials have been unhappy with the company’s performance in meeting rail car contract specifications in the past, but the company has several political insiders in town pushing this deal, said to be Los Angeles County Federation of Labor lobbyist Chris Lehane, and the green building company Shangri-LA Construction, founded by prominent Democratic contributor and Villaraigosa donor Steven Bing.

More altruistically, farther north in the corridor, a DWP research center focusing on renewable energy, climate change and water intended to attract companies that want to work with area universities.

Dubbed CleanTech Los Angeles, the city is seeking to create a research alliance (not unlike the Department of Energy’s Commercial Building Energy Alliances) involving local area educational institutions, with major roles being played by the California Institute of Technology, University of California Los Angeles and the University of Southern California, among others.

“I’ve often said that Los Angeles may have the best collection of intellectual talent of any county in the nation. I believe it’s important to invest our intellectual capital in programs that enhance the quality of life for all of our citizens” noted University of Southern California President Steven Sample. “USC is delighted to partner with our colleagues in higher education, and with our friends from the public sector and from private business, to help make Los Angeles the greenest city in America.”

“Broader recognition of Los Angeles as a global regional center of science and engineering research and clean technology development bodes well for its economic competitiveness in a rapidly changing world,” added Dr. Jean-Lou Chameau, President of the California Institute of Technology.

The cluster of laboratories would be housed in an old transformer warehouse overlooking the river on the DWP’s Main Street site, and the DWP recently secured a private donation that will allow the department to perform a $4.5-million “green retrofit” of the building.

Among the projects planned: development of aerospace technology with Caltech and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory that would help the DWP better measure snowpack in the Eastern Sierra and dust in the Owens Valley.

In the basement of the DWP building, UCLA would build a wind tunnel testing facility. Meanwhile, USC is exploring the site as a home for a research institute that would study how to make data centers more energy efficient.

“The city really provides a platform to have a lot of technologies tested,” said John X. Chen, the DWP’s executive director of customer service and water conservation. He said the city will be spending billions of dollars trying to reach the mayor’s renewable energy goals. For those reasons, he argued that when competing for grants, “We will be very, very competitive against anybody out there.”

And, you can’t have business without housing nearby. At the northern end of the corridor, the Cornfield/Arroyo Seco specific plan area spans more than 600 acres — from Los Angeles State Historic Park, across the river into Lincoln Heights. It will be one of those picture pretty pedestrian- and cyclist-centered neighborhood

The city would also place special restrictions on developers within a mile of the river, requiring open space and measures to reduce carbon emissions in the neighborhood.

FYI…The L.A. Times notes that the CleanTech corridor is a critical component of the mayor’s “green jobs” agenda as he eyes a probable run for governor in 2010. And it could be a test of his pledge to transform Los Angeles into “the greenest and cleanest big city in the nation,” drawing more than a third of its electrical power from renewable sources by 2020.

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http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-clean-tech28-2009apr28,0,669366,print.story

http://www.ioe.ucla.edu/news/article.asp?parentid=3347

http://www.today.ucla.edu/portal/ut/la-to-become-the-capital-of-green-88893.aspx

http://cleantechlosangeles.org/

http://www.lachamber.com/clientuploads/EWE_committee/RFI_FINAL_9_16_2008.pdf

http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/hoDaoA3nwB-/Mayor+Antonio+Villaraigosa+Votes+Election/jvGcHFcTcLF/Antonio+Villaraigosa

MAYOR VILLARAIGOSA’S 30/10 INITIATIVE WILL BRING INDUSTRIAL GROWTH TO LOS ANGELES

By Jodi Summers

Bravo to Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa for going to Washington to push his 30/10 initiative. The mass transit financing method that he has proposed so that Los Angeles can build their 30-year mass transit model in 10 years’ time, could be a new model for federal-local partnership, that could help cities across the country rebuild their infrastructure, strengthen urban development and revitalize the economy, and stimulate industrial growth.

“We are trying to define density not as a bad word, but as a word that can have elegance to it, and be green, and be smart,” the mayor said. “Yet the city needs to change even more, and the 30/10 plan is one of the routes to that change.”

Senator George Voinovich from Ohio, a former mayor, noted that regions like Los Angeles should be rewarded for raising our own transportation funding.

The 30/10 proposal would allow Metro to construct the full Westside extension, but also two easterly extensions of the Gold Line, two new branches for the Green Line, several busways in San Fernando Valley, a link along I-405, and new light rail lines downtown, along Crenshaw Boulevard, to Santa Monica, and via the West Santa Ana branch corridor. The West Santa Ana branch corridor would be served by commuter rail. All by 2020.

It was a brilliant solution to an intractable political problem by ensuring the extension of transit in corridors everywhere in the county within a tight time frame. The fight over which lines to prioritize would simply not have to happen

The 30/10 proposal that went to Washington looks something like this:

o Current long-range transportation plan assumes $18.3 billion in transit expenditures over 30 years. 65% of funds would come from Measure R, with 23% from New Starts and 12% from other sources.

o The 30/10 Initiative would allow total expenditures to be reduced to $14.7 billion because of avoided inflation, since projects would be completed in ten years, twenty years ahead of schedule. More cost savings could also be possible because of a cheaper construction market.

o Of that $14.7 billion, $5.8 billion is expected to be available from existing sources, with around $8.8 billion still necessary, which could be provided through a loan from the federal government.

o Measure R would then pay back its $8.8 billion in debts for projects completed between 2010 and 2020 with $10.4 billion in tax revenue received between 2020 and 2040.

In Washington, Mayor Villiarigosa got support Oregon Democratic Representative Peter DeFazio, who chairs the House Subcommittee on Highways and Transit. California Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer also supports the effort. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood signaled that he was open to the opportunity in a meeting in Los Angeles

“Four years ago, when I talked about the subway to the sea, people laughed,”

Villaraigosa recalls. “But we are going to build it. All of these transit plans will happen.”

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http://www.laedc.org/businessscan/index.html

http://www.globest.com/newspics/la_urbanmarketplacepanel.jpg

http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2010/03/01/how-feasible-is-antonio-villaraigosas-3010-gambit-for-los-angeles-transit/

http://la.streetsblog.org/2010/04/22/3010-survives-the-metro-board-of-directors/

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/26/opinion/la-oe-rutten27-2010feb27

http://www.globest.com/news/1622_1622/losangeles/184054-1.html

http://www.socalgreenrealestateblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/subwaymayor-760786.jpg

4 GREEN BUILDING TRENDS 4U

4 GREEN BUILDING TRENDS 4U

By Jodi Summers

Green building concepts are being embraced with as much wild abandon as kids grasping for the coolest new video game. It started pretty basic – green construction, then evolved into green renovation, and now it’s branching out in all directions. Here are 4 green building trends to watch and invest….

1 - Modular Green Homes – One of the most successful investors in history, Warren Buffett, recently expanded one of his business subsidiaries, Clayton Homes, to produces a line of green modular homes. These 750-square-foot eco homes, dubbed “i-houses,” can be purchased online for less than $75,000. It’s a good bet that if Buffet is invested in it, the area will grow. Our hero is second richest man in the United States with a net worth of $40 billion.

The i-houses are constructed as modules in a factory and then assembled in the field. I-houses are marketed as “affordable luxury in a green, energy-efficient package.”

Beyond Buffett, there are others, such as Zeta Communities and Blu Homes in the green prefabricated market. Modular home construction will be a wise choice for builders going forward because it may allow developers reduce risk, allowing the development of large sites to take place as sales come in rather than building a planned community in larger phases before the units are sold out.

2 – Energy Retrofits – California state measure AB 1103, which requires the tracking of the energy use of all nonresidential buildings for disclosure to prospective buyers and tenants, is a fine example of how critical energy retrofits will be in the future. Much of the country’s real estate is old and wastes energy…eventually these properties will need to be upgraded or replaced. Not to mention, this is a cornerstone of President Obama’s post recession job creation movement.

Energy Star, the government, and local utilities have been offering rebates for property owners on measures like energy audits, insulation and duct sealing. SBI Energy predicts that the U.S. home energy retrofit market will grow about 15 percent per year to $35 billion by 2013, up from $20.7 billion in 2007.

David Leathers, senior vice president of energy services for mechanical contractor Limbach, confides that U.S. commercial building in the U.S. five years or older can likely benefit from a retrofit with payback for most measures taken in less than five years.

3 - Smart Building Materials - Energy-efficient building materials are the frame of green building. Serious Materials recently raised a $60 million third round of venture for the manufacture of energy-saving windows and environmentally friendly substitutes for sheetrock. More good investments - high-efficiency insulation system companies, such as walls with micro-encapsulated phase change materials to stabilize the indoor temperatures in buildings. More…Electrochromic technologies can darken or lighten the tint of a window when in contact with an electrical current, thus managing the amount of sunlight that passes through…Ventilated double-skin facades (already being used in Europe), use inner and outer glass walls with a thin cavity to provide insulation in between for the exterior shell of a building.

4 - More Energy Efficient Energy Codes - The American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE ) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) are both developing the latest round of “model codes”— ASHRAE 90.1 and IECC — will likely require a 30 percent increase in energy efficiency.

Congress may soon mandate that all states raise their standards to the newest codes. The American Clean Energy and Security Act passed by the House this year includes a provision that would effectively create a baseline national building energy code by mandating the adoption of a standard set by the Department of Energy, who may very well call on the standards set forth by ASHRAE or IECC.

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http://earth2tech.com/2009/12/23/4-green-building-trends-to-watch-in-2010/

http://www.motherearthnews.com/Green-Homes/Green-Modular-Homes.aspx

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffet

http://www.socalgreenrealestateblog.com/?p=841

http://www.ashrae.org/

http://www.icis.com/blogs/green-chemicals/2009/01/green-building-is-still-recess.html

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http://www.charlesandhudson.com/archives/eco-friendly-building-materials.jpg

CALGREEN – > CALIFORNIA NOW HAS THE COUNTRY’S GREENEST BUILDING STANDARD

By Jodi Summers

Bravo to us! California has adopted the greenest building standards in the United States…and the world.

The new code, called Calgreen, goes into effect next January 2011. It requires all builders to:

v Install plumbing that cuts indoor water use.

Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board, said the new building code would require developers to slash water use in their buildings by 20%, using more efficient toilets, shower heads and faucets.

v Divert 50 percent of construction waste from landfills to recycling.

v Use low-pollutant paints, carpets and floorings

v Buildings will be given certificates of occupancy occupied only after strict energy standards were verified.

In addition, for non residential buildings:

v Install separate water meters for different uses.

v Mandates the inspection of energy systems by local officials to ensure that heaters, air conditioners and other mechanical equipment in nonresidential buildings are working efficiently.

v It allows local jurisdictions, such as Los Angeles and San Francisco, to retain their stricter existing green building standards, or adopt more stringent versions of the state code if they choose.

“California should be proud… These are simple, cost-effective green practices. …” notes Tom Sheehy, acting secretary of the state Consumer Services Agency and chair of the California Building Standards Commission, which approved the standards. “This is (something) no other state in the country has done - integrating green construction practices into the very fabric of the construction code.”

While California’s largest metropolitan areas have adopted their own green building standards, these new regulations will be particularly useful for smaller jurisdictions that have been unable to develop their own green construction guidelines.

This is a positive alternative to LEED construction standards. Sites Sandra Boyle, an executive vice president of Glenborough, a developer, “The cost for owners to go through this rating system is astronomical — in a very challenging commercial real estate market.”

“You will have a whole bunch of cities that never would have included this in their building doing it, and doing it in a way that won’t kill the economy,” observes Matthew Hargrove, a vice president with the California Business Properties Association. “Outside the coastal areas it will be helpful - like in West Sacramento, where they looked into creating a green building code but balked because it’s cumbersome to develop and they didn’t have the resources.”

Buildings currently account for about one-quarter of the state’s total greenhouse gas emissions. These new standards are applauded as an important step in helping California meet its goal in reducing the state’s greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent by 2020.

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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2010/01/13/MNDR1BH9SA.DTL#ixzz0dJ9grkaW

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2010/01/13/MNDR1BH9SA.DTL

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-green-building11-2010jan11,0,1841989.story

http://www.thedailygreen.com/cm/thedailygreen/images/WA/Kohler-DualFlush-BR08-lg.jpg

GREENING BUILDINGS THE EASY WAY - THE ICC GREEN BUILDING OVERLAY

GREENING BUILDINGS THE EASY WAY - THE ICC GREEN BUILDING OVERLAY

By Jodi Summers

More green building codes anyone? Sure, there are already several green building codes in use today - LEED, Energy Star, NAHB Green, Green Globes, BREEM and the latest, and perhaps most practical to join the crowd is ICC – the of International Code Council.

FYI, you’ve walked through hundreds of International Code Council respecting properties. Most U.S. cities, counties and states that adopt building codes choose the International Codes developed by the International Code Council. As the ICC already has such a huge fan base, they’ve decided to have their input into green building codes > a.k.a. IGCC.

The objective of this new project is to develop a Green Building Code for traditional and high-performance buildings that is consistent and coordinated with the ICC family of Codes and Standards.

“Congratulations on taking such an important step to ensure the creation of such a code system. We are pleased to support this effort in any way possible,” USGBC President Richard Fedrizzi stated publicly, throwing in a compliment to the Code Council for “undertaking a collaborative approach to this important work.”

A bit of insight: the International Code Council, a membership association dedicated to building safety and fire prevention, develops the codes used to construct residential and commercial buildings, including homes and schools.

Being the progressive state that we are, California, has already adopted a green building code, which is incorporated into the template the ICC has come up with for the rest of the country.

“California continues to lead the nation and I commend the hard work of the Building Standards Commission to adopt the first-in-the-nation statewide green building standards,” proudly observed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The objective of the ICC code will be to raise the bottom line, giving all buildings a greener baseline. LEED, in contrast, is a bolder standard, providing innovative and more challenging ways to reduce green house gas emissions, materials usage, enhance energy efficiency, and all other good green things.

An ICC green code will make politicians, building inspectors and code officials comfortable with adopting and utilizing I-Codes as the basis for building regulations. By adopting an ICC code and augmenting it with what some of the greener cities like Santa Monica, Berkeley, Sacramento and West Hollywood are doing, municipalities will not have to reinvent the code wheel when looking to implement green building practices.

Wisely, the ICC Green Building Code is an overlay that can integrate with the I-codes that already exist in most jurisdictions.

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http://www.greenbuildinglawblog.com

http://www.greenerbuildings.com/blog/2009/08/20/why-world-needs-another-green-building-standard

http://www.iccsafe.org/

http://www.socalgreenrealestateblog.com/?p=157

http://www.iccsafe.org/news/nr/2009/0722_USGBC.pdf

REGISTER YOUR CELL PHONE ON THE DO NOT CALL LIST

REGISTER YOUR CELL PHONE ON THE DO NOT CALL LIST

By Jodi Summers

Cell Phone Numbers Go Public this month….meaning cell phone numbers are being released to telemarketing companies and you will start to receive annoying sales calls on your cell phone…and YOU WILL BE CHARGED FOR THESE CALLS.

To prevent this, call the National DO NOT CALL list number from you cell phone. That number is - 888-382-1222.

Registering will block your number for five (5) years.

FYI - You must call from the cell phone number you want to have blocked. You cannot call from a different phone number.

SCHWARZENEGGER HAS A GREEN LEGACY, BUT OUR ECONOMY STILL SUCKS

SCHWARZENEGGER HAS A GREEN LEGACY, BUT OUR ECONOMY STILL SUCKS

By Jodi Summers

Arnold Schwarzenegger is now an international superstar in more than one arena. First it was movies, now it’s global warming. During his terms as governor, California’s bold energy programs are influencing national and international policies.

Three years after California adopted AB 32 - California’s landmark 2006 global warming initiative,

1- The Obama Administration announced that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will adopt a vehicle emissions standard modeled after California’s first-in-the-nation standard

2- The International Code Council announced the state’s newly adopted Green Building Standards Code will serve as a foundation for commercial buildings worldwide.

3- California participated in the launch of China’s first GHG emissions registry.

Being a leader in clean energy standards has made California a leader in clean energy investment and green jobs. In the last three years, more than $6 billion in venture capital has been pumped into California’s economy, making us the national leader in the number of clean businesses. Green jobs have also skyrocketed, growing 10 times faster in California than in other areas. This growth is expected to continue. According to a recent study, California is on track to more than double its power generated by solar panel installations in 2009.

Sounds brilliant, yet our economy is currently down the tubes. Only our future is filled with green.

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http://gov.ca.gov/issue/energy-environment/

http://www.sgvtribune.com/news/ci_13345618?source=rss

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-power16-2009sep16,0,3412344.story

http://www.pollsb.com/photos/o/38053-relase_greenhouse_gasses_atmosphere_believed_cause_global_climate_changes_following_causes_increase_greenhouse_gas_emissions.jpg

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ArnoldSchwarzenegger

http://en.cop15.dk/files/images/1col_492px/chinaenergy_19980822-134048-7_web.jpg

URGENT! CONTACT YOUR CONGRESSMAN TO AVOID COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE TAX HIKES

Action to Oppose More Than Doubling of Taxes on Real Estate Carried Interests

Edited by Jodi Summers

In early December, Congressman Charles Rangel Ways, chairman of the Ways and Means Committee of the House of Representatives, introduced the “Tax Extenders Act of 2009″ (H.R. 4213). Wrapped in this legislation package is a proposal that would more than double the taxes on carried interest received by general partners in real estate partnerships. Under this legislation, carried interest would no longer be taxed as capital gains at 15 percent, but as ordinary income at rates as high as almost 35 percent…making everyone’s investment real estate holdings a lot less sexy.

Kick us while we’re down. Those investing in commercial real estate are already feeling economic distress because of the decline of property values and the lack of loans available. The proposed legislation would more than double the taxes imposed on many real estate entrepreneurs.

If H.R. 4123 enacted into law, this proposal could be the largest modification to the taxation of real estate since the Tax Reform Act of 1986.

This bill was past stealthfully, proposed on December 7^th, it bypassed the customary legislative process, bypassing the House Ways and Means Committee, and going directly to the House floor for a vote on December 9, reducing meaningful opportunities to amend the bill.

Safeguard your real estate assets; communicate with your Congressional Representatives and Senators! Let them know that this tax increase on carried interest will further damage the commercial real estate industry and undermine efforts in their own communities to spur job growth and economic recovery.

http://www.capwiz.com/naiop/issues/alert/?alertid=14439831&type=CO has letters ready to go to your congressmen.

Save your assets and contact them.

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http://www.capwiz.com/naiop/issues/alert/?alertid=14439831&type=CO

http://www.ysop.org/images/Capitol.jpg

INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY FORECAST - 3Q 2009

INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY FORECAST

By Jodi Summers

Industrial properties in near the Southern California airports and ports were long considered to be secure investments, for seemingly obvious reasons…

1. Two of the country’s three largest ports.

2. An organized, but congested distribution hub.

3. A world of growing economies exchanging products, and the need to store these products as they arrived / departed our shores.

With the world economy at a standstill, this has certainly changed. Currently, the

Industrial market is in serious pain. Los Angeles area industrial vacancy rates are down 8.2%, and the increase in space has led to a drop in rental rates by 10% or more.

It’s a buyer’s market. Investors are saying that SoCal industrial volume sales are at their lowest in a decade. The Society for Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR) reports, “The Industrial marketplace is suffering from decreased leasing activity, a steeper decline in rental rates, and higher levels of tenant concessions. It is also expecting higher vacancy rates.”

Industrial real estate is not alone. Although everyone would love to paint a prettier picture, currently, the commercial market is in turmoil. Research from the Realtor Commercial Alliance concludes that thus far this year, virtually all commercial sectors throughout the country are down. (Someone prove us wrong please.) The economic shift has caused the demand for commercial properties to drop precipitously, bringing down prices and rents. Add to this scenario maturing commercial debt, with credit available to bolster the need for funds…and voila, you have a jump in delinquencies and distressed properties. Sellers outnumber buyers, vacancy rates are rising in all sectors.

“You just have to hang on as best you can right now,” notes sophisticated investor, EW Moon.

SIOR notes that the Western U.S. industrial sector is suffering more than other regions of the country. “Its overall market is suffering from the largest decline in asking rents, the lowest level of leasing activity, the highest level of available sublease space, thedeepest level of landlord concessions, and higher vacancy rates. The short term outlook for the West is the lowest of all regions, with sales prices that are lower than replacement costs.

Looking forward to brighter days, there are signs that economy is no longer cannonballing into a depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) declined only 1.0% in the second quarter of 2009. This can be considered hopeful news after a 6.4% decline in 1Q 2009, and a 5.4% drop in 4Q 2008.

Are you interested in knowing the condition of your local real estate market? Email jodi@jodisummers.com to receive a free market report for your LA county neighborhood.

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http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/83575f004f476966b69ff74e813808c1/FullCREO09August.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=83575f004f476966b69ff74e813808c1

THINK GREEN - REAL ESTATE IS STRONGER NEAR METROPOLITAN AREAS

By Jodi Summers

The statistics are in – properties closer to cities with thriving economies and mass transit will outperform outer-ring suburbs and “exurban areas,” where high gas prices are making long car commutes prohibitively expensive and rising energy costs mean higher utility bills. We’re thinking and spending green.

This information comes courtesy of a report released by the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. The study interviewed more than 600 real estate experts, including investors, developers, lenders and real estate brokers.

The report, Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2009, projects that the worst of the national housing downturn may be over, with the bottom of the market being confirmed by the end of this year.

The report is focused on commercial real estate such as commercial, office, industrial and apartment properties, but includes an overview of housing markets and how they may be affected by macroeconomic trends and changing regional conditions. Some interesting observations:

· Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New York and Los Angeles are expected to be the top five markets for investment in commercial property in 2009.

· Wall Street layoffs and office vacancies will help Seattle and San Francisco to reclaim top rankings for commercial investment from New York.

· The thriving energy industry is expected to boost commercial investment prospects for “long-forlorn” Texas markets, but Midwest factory towns are expected to lose even more ground,

· “24 hour cities” like New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., should also benefit from mass transit systems that can free residents from car dependence.

But, gains in the attractiveness of 24-hour cities could be “squandered” if cutbacks in police, fire and sanitation result in less safe and appealing environments. Falling property values and the economic slowdown are expected to cut into tax revenues, forcing cities to reduce services.

“Nothing would undermine 24-hour dynamics more quickly than rising crime rates,” the report warned.

· “24 hour cities” like New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., should also benefit from mass transit systems that can free residents from car dependence.

But, gains in the attractiveness of 24-hour cities could be “squandered” if cutbacks in police, fire and sanitation result in less safe and appealing environments. Falling property values and the economic slowdown are expected to cut into tax revenues, forcing cities to reduce services.

“Nothing would undermine 24-hour dynamics more quickly than rising crime rates,” the report warned.

http://www.ulisf.org/imgManager/1000000877/Cover%20-%20EmergingTrends2009.jpg

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